Will Tariffs Affect Restaurants in the U.S. Market in 2025?
Tariffs are reshaping the financial terrain for U.S. restaurants, and their impact is more than just a line item on a purchase order, it’s a real-time threat to profit margins, sourcing strategies, and expansion timelines. Whether you're overseeing a single-unit flagship or a fast-growing multi-concept group, 2025's evolving tariff landscape is something you can't afford to ignore.
Let’s break down how tariffs and surcharges are showing up in your P&L, and what you can do about it.
Tariffs and Surcharges: What’s New in 2025?
In 2025, tariffs are hitting harder and in more places than before. New rounds of U.S. import taxes on goods from countries like China, Vietnam, and India are making everything from furniture to fryer baskets cost significantly more. It’s not just the equipment, ingredients like imported spices, specialty oils, or seafood are also seeing price spikes.
And while tariffs grab the headlines, vendor-imposed surcharges quietly add pressure. You might spot a “freight surcharge” or “materials adjustment fee” on your invoices, especially from broadline distributors or furniture suppliers. These charges often stem from rising labor, fuel, and logistics costs, but they’re rarely negotiable and almost never short-term.
Real-World Impact on Restaurant Costs
Say you’re opening a new location this quarter. Here’s how tariffs and surcharges might show up:
New Location Restaurant Costs
| Item | Pre-Tariff Cost | 2025 Cost (Tariff & Surcharge Included) | % Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dining Chairs (Qty: 30) | $3,000 | $3,900 | +30% |
| Imported Cookware | $1,200 | $1,500 | +25% |
| To-Go Packaging (Monthly) | $850 | $1,020 | +20% |
| Signature Imported Ingredient | $1,000 | $1,200 | +20% |
Tariff increases directly impact restaurants by driving a vendor cost surge and invoice price inflation, leading to a spike in inventory costs and reduced menu profitability. As highlighted by Paytronix in their article, "The Impact of Tariffs on Restaurants and C-Stores In 2025," this results in most operators experiencing a 6–12% increase in overall COGS compared to 2024.
How Tariffs Disrupt Daily Restaurant Operations
Tariffs aren’t just about dollars—they affect everything from back-of-house flow to brand consistency. Here’s what operators are experiencing:
Unpredictable Ingredient Costs
Imported or specialty items are harder to forecast. If an ingredient's cost triples overnight, it either disappears from the menu or wrecks your margins.
Compromised Vendor Loyalty
You might love your current supplier, but if their pricing becomes unstable due to tariff exposure, switching may be your only choice. In some cases, regional suppliers can’t match your volume or quality needs.
Menu Inflexibility
Static menus are a liability. The cost to print, retrain, and reprice just one location adds up—and with fluctuating costs, updates may be needed monthly.
Strategic Adjustments Restaurants Are Making Now
1. Flexible Menu Engineering
Restaurants are leaning into adaptable, seasonal, or modular menus. If halibut gets hit with a tariff, pivot to local trout. Smart POS integrations can help flag which menu items drive profit and which ones chip away at it.
2. Multi-Vendor Sourcing
Instead of relying on one supplier, operators are creating a vendor matrix—balancing national distributors, regional purveyors, and even direct imports to minimize dependency on any one channel.
3. Pricing Models with Agility
Operators are experimenting with:
Tiered pricing for different market tiers
Bundling to preserve value perception
Dynamic pricing that adjusts per region or sales channel
4. Expansion Budget Reassessment
Opening a new store now requires an extra buffer. Tariffs on imported furniture or equipment can add 15–25% to your buildout. As a result, some restaurant groups are delaying launches or revising floor plans to accommodate more U.S.-made assets.
5. Strategic Outsourcing to Access Specialized Talent and Lower Costs
As labor markets tighten and operating costs rise, many growing restaurant groups are turning to strategic outsourcing, particularly for back-office roles like AP processing and inventory management.
This model helps restaurants stay lean, access specialized expertise, and scale faster without the overhead of recruiting and training in-house. From GL-level invoice coding to line-item vendor audits, outsourced talent ensures tighter controls and real-time data without ballooning your G&A.
Outsourced talent ensures tighter controls and real-time data. According to Deloitte’s 2024 Global Outsourcing Survey, 80% of executives plan to maintain or increase investment in third-party outsourcing, driven not only by cost reduction but also by the need for skilled talent (42%) and increased customer demands (35%),
The Role of Technology in Navigating Tariff Disruption
Tech platforms are helping restaurant operators respond quickly and intelligently to these macroeconomic pressures.
Recipe management systems like Meez, MarketMan, and xtraCHEF allow you to re-cost recipes when an ingredient price spikes—no spreadsheet gymnastics required.
Inventory tracking platforms like MarginEdge and Restaurant365 help catch cost anomalies in real time, alerting you when a 10 lb. bag of flour jumps unexpectedly in price. Effective inventory management is critical, and understanding metrics like Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) can provide deeper insights into optimizing your stock, reducing waste, and managing COGS more effectively.
Vendor audits and third-party portal checks, especially for large suppliers like Sysco, are essential to flag surcharges that may be padded or misapplied.
Across all units and concepts, data is now your best defense. For example, if chicken thighs jump 22% in your Texas stores but stay flat in Nevada, a real-time alert lets you pivot sourcing or menu items before it hits your margins. Additionally, while navigating these cost pressures, restaurants should also be aware of strategies that can provide significant financial relief. Exploring how to unlock tax savings can help identify opportunities for tax reduction and enhanced cash flow, complementing your efforts to manage operating expenses.
The Tariff Impact Model for Restaurants
Tariff increases on imported goods lead to a vendor cost surge, inflating invoice prices for restaurants and causing a spike in inventory costs. This directly reduces menu profitability, prompting restaurants to consider menu engineering or shifting vendors to develop an updated inventory plan and pricing strategy to mitigate the impact.
Long-Term Moves: Building a Resilient Restaurant Group
Beyond daily operations, tariffs are pushing operators to rethink long-term plans:
Supplier agreements now include tariff clauses
Expansion strategies incorporate domestic sourcing feasibility
Sourcing policies factor in proximity and vendor reliability, not just price per pound
Contract renegotiation cycles are shorter and more strategic
The best-run groups aren’t just reacting—they’re building tariff resilience into their culture, their tech stack, and their planning calendars.
Final Thoughts: Don’t Let Tariffs Catch You Off Guard
Whether you run a single coastal concept or a growing regional group, tariffs are now part of the operating reality. But so is control, if you're equipped with the right tools, vendor strategy, and data visibility.
Over Easy Office supports multi-unit restaurants by managing the heavy lifting in AP invoice processing (both GL and line-item), third-party invoice audits, inventory item mapping, UoM conversions, stock counts, and more—across platforms like MarketMan, Meez, xtraCHEF, MarginEdge, and Restaurant365.
Contact us today to streamline your inventory management and control COGS—even in a tariff-heavy market.